The Climate Change Canary

Being in miner in the 19th century was a dangerous job. As the story goes, miners depended on canaries as an early warning sign for dangerous levels of deadly gas in cave systems as canaries are especially sensitive to methane and carbon monoxide. As long as the canary was alive and signing the miners were safe, as safe as you could be as a miner in the 19th century. A dead canary was a signal to the miners to get out quickly before they too succumbed to the toxic gases. I imagine these canaries provided some level of comfort to the men working in extremely dangerous conditions, constantly at danger of threats they could not detect.

We always want to have an early warning system, something to let us know when we have gone too far and need to retreat before the harm is done. When looking at the debate concerning climate change, scientists have long been warning of a ‘tipping point’ or the ‘canary in the coalmine’ of climate change.

While researchers see that climate change is happening there is a disconnect when looking at the disasters of such changes. One of these so called early indicators of the impending consequences of a warming climate  is climate displacement. This is when groups of people are forced to move either permanently or for a period of time because of climate change disasters. Climate displacement has been referred to as the “canary in the coalmine” of climate change disasters, from the inundation of small island states to the current violence in Darfur (Barker 2008, McAdam 2009, Brookings 2011, TEDTalks, Aljazeera 2015 and Renner 2015). It is troubling to see researchers and journalists refer to these displacement events as early trends of future impacts as the situation has far surpassed early, isolated instances.

The canary is long dead. The effects of climate change are felt around the world. Climate displacement and other climate change induced disasters are occurring, not as early indicators of future problems, but as long term effects of an unchecked crisis. It is important to push past the misconception that these are still ‘early signs’ of future climate problems because it only delays action. This perpetuated inaction can be seen when media attention focuses on the ‘surprising’ fact that climate change is affecting human systems today and when researchers mention climate displacement and other climate change disasters as early indicators of what is to come.

Accepting that the early indicators are long gone will focus measures on realistic adaptation and mitigation efforts. While mitigation is extremely important, the damage of past emissions has already been done and choices will need to be made. These choices must be grounded in the principles of equality and climate justice if long lasting solutions are to be reached.

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High Heat, High Inequality

2015 was the hottest year on record…. again. With temperatures continuing to rise the impacts of a hotter climate continue as well, affecting millions of people around the globe.

The affects of climate change will be felt more quickly and more severely in countries that are the least equipped to prepare for these impacts.  When looking at the major emitters of the world today they are very different from the list of countries considered most vulnerable to climate change disasters.

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Calculating the level of vulnerability to climate change disasters is complicated. The Climate Vulnerability Monitor by Dara works to calculate vulnerability to different disasters all over the world. The Executive Summary of the Dara’s recent publication shows the differences between carbon emitters and those feeling the affects of climate change disasters today.  In the report, the total deaths related to climate change are shown divided by the development level of the country. The report finds that in 2010 48% of the carbon related deaths (air pollution, indoor smoke, occupational hazards, skin cancer) were in developing countries that are considered low emitters while only 4% of deaths came from developed countries who are responsible for most of the historical emissions.

The results were even more shocking when looking at climate related deaths (diarrheal infection, heat and cold illnesses, hunger, vector borne diseases, meningitis, environmental disasters) with 83% of deaths coming from developing countries with low emissions, 15% from developing countries with high emissions, and less than 2% from other industrialized nations. So it is clear that the risk of climate change disasters falls more on countries with historically low emissions.

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The Zika virus, currently moving through South America and parts of North America has been able to spread faster, along with other mosquito-borne infections because of warming temperatures. Those at high risk spend more time outdoors, unprotected from mosquitoes for the majority of the day, meaning that even if the virus made its way to the United States it would likely not spread as quickly as it has in Brazil.

The president of the island state Kiribati, Anote Tong, says that his people will be displaced by climate change within the next five years because of the many consequences of the rising sea. An entire culture is at risk as the land they are living on is disappearing, forcing an entire society to leave behind everything and find refuge in another area of the world because of the consequences of a climate they had no part in creating.

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Even within the US the populations that are suffering from climate disasters are the poorest communities. On January 21st the Obama administration announced that $93 million will given given to Louisiana for climate resilience projects. One of these projects includes the resettlement of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Indian community currently living on lands that are being inundated by rising sea levels.

The fault of current CO2 levels fall with nations that are best equipped to handle disasters. These climate inequalities shed light on the deeply divided world we live in and climate change is just another disaster to add to a long list of inequalities between those who have access to goods and services and those who don’t. As climate disasters continue to escalate these inequalities will become even more evident and deadly.

Stumbling Climate Legislation

 

Séance pleinière de la COP21 pour l’adoption de l’accord de Paris (Salle Seine - Le Bourget)

Only a few weeks into 2016 and there are already complications with climate change legislation in the United States. While the Paris Climate Talks were largely considered a success most agreed that the main test would be putting promises made into action. The first issue has occurred as the US Supreme Court blocked President Obama’s plans to restrict emissions from coal-fired power plants, one of the main initiatives set forward to comply with the agreements in Paris. This ruling by the Supreme Court sends a strong message that climate change legislation continues to meet strong objections.

The charge to halt the new EPA act was lead by mostly republican governed states who’s economies rely on coal fired power plants. Many stating that this oversight by the EPA would hurt businesses and the local economy. However, regulations will need to become more frequent if serious action is to be taken on climate change. This swift response to stop any changes promised in the Paris Climate Talks illustrates an uphill battle in moving toward a more ecological society.

With the recent death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, arguably the most conservative supreme court justice, the issue of the ruling comes up once again as those in congress argue whether President Obama should appointment another justice before the end of his presidency. This appointment could have a large impact on climate change legislation, especially with this current ruling. If Obama is able to have another justice appointed this individual would most likely be liberal and tip the scale on the court in favor of climate change regulation. Because of this, the appointment of the next judge will have an important impact on climate regulation efforts than previous appointments.

So while the Supreme Court did not kill the Paris climate deal it certainly put doubt in people’s minds regarding the possibility of enacting sweeping changes at the pace required. Last month the Rhodium Group published a report that adds to the disappointment of the post climate talks. In the report, it is suggested that even in the most optimistic setting all of the regulations and technological advances put forward in Obama’s climate plan, it will not be enough to meet the targets set forth. Since we have already seen many obstacles proving this will not be a smooth implementation of relations, the Rhodium Group report does not bode well for meeting important climate benchmarks in the coming years.

Saving the climate as we know it has always been a fight and is going to take continued action by climate advocates if there is to be meaningful change in the coming years. The time to act is not now, it was decades ago, but that does not mean that we cannot or should not fight for meaningful change today.